COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS FOR TODAY 6-NOV-2013

MOST ACCURATE COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS FOR TODAY 6-NOV-2013

GOLD (5 DEC.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 29850

RES 2: 30200
SUPP 1: 29500
SUPP 2: 29200
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

SILVER (5 DEC.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 48650
RES 2: 49000
SUPP 1: 47750
SUPP 2: 47000
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

CRUDEOIL (19 NOV) TREND: BEARISH
RES 1: 5850
RES 2: 6000
SUPP 1: 5750
SUPP 2: 5690
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

COPPER (29 NOV.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 452.80
RES 2: 457
SUPP 1: 446
SUPP 2: 443
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS


LEAD (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 135.50
RES 2: 137
SUPP 1: 133      
SUPP 2: 132
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

ZINC (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 120
RES 2: 121.50
SUPP 1: 118
SUPP 2: 117
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS                         

ALUMINIUM (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 113
RES 2: 114          
SUPP 1: 110
SUPP 2:  109.50
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

NICKEL (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 902          
RES 2: 909.50    
SUPP 1: 890
SUPP 2: 882.50
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

NATURAL GAS (25 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 220
RES 2: 224
SUPP 1: 213.50
SUPP 2: 210.50
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

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MOST ACCURATE COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS FOR TODAY 31-OCT-2013

MOST ACCURATE COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS FOR TODAY 31-OCT-2013

 

GOLD (5 DEC.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 30450
RES 2: 30850
SUPP 1: 29925
SUPP 2: 29580
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

SILVER (5 DEC.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 50400
RES 2: 50850
SUPP 1: 49400
SUPP 2: 49000
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

CRUDE OIL (19 NOV) TREND: BEARISH
RES 1: 6050
RES 2: 6120
SUPP 1: 5870
SUPP 2: 5760
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

COPPER (29 NOV.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 454
RES 2: 457.30
SUPP 1: 446.50
SUPP 2: 443.30
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

LEAD (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 136.40
RES 2: 137.50
SUPP 1: 133.75
SUPP 2: 132.85
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

ZINC (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 121
RES 2: 121.80
SUPP 1: 119.20
SUPP 2: 118
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS                        

ALUMINIUM (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 115.70
RES 2: 116.60   
SUPP 1: 113.70
SUPP 2:  112.50
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

NICKEL (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 907         
RES 2: 914.50
SUPP 1: 895.50
SUPP 2: 892.60
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

NATURAL GAS (25 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 227.70
RES 2: 232.50
SUPP 1: 220.40
SUPP 2: 217
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

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AGRI MARKET TRENDS FOR TODAY 30-OCT-2013

MOST ACCURATE  AND PROFITABLE AGRI MARKET TRENDS FOR TODAY 30-OCT-2013

CHANA (20 NOV.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE 
RES 1: 3185 
RES 2: 3215 
SUPP 1: 3095 
SUPP 2: 3060 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CASTORSEED (20 NOV.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE 
RES 1: 3640
RES 2: 3695 
SUPP 1: 3565 
SUPP 2: 3515 
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGH 

DHANIYA (20 NOV.)TREND: CONSOLIDATE 
RES 1: 6915 
RES 2: 6985 
SUPP 1: 6820 
SUPP 2: 6795 
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

SOYABEAN (20 NOV.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE 
RES 1: 3830 
RES 2: 3865 
SUPP 1: 3765 
SUPP 2: 3715 
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

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COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS FOR TODAY 30-OCT 2013

COMMODITY MARKET TRENDS FOR TODAY 30-OCT 2013

GOLD (5 DEC.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 30770
RES 2: 31000
SUPP 1: 29925
SUPP 2: 29600
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

SILVER (5 DEC.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 49820
RES 2: 50200
SUPP 1: 49060
SUPP 2: 48500
STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS

CRUDE OIL (19 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 6100
RES 2: 6200
SUPP 1:6000
SUPP 2: 5940
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

COPPER (29 NOV.) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 453.20
RES 2: 457
SUPP 1: 444
SUPP 2: 441.50
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

LEAD (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 136
RES 2: 137.50
SUPP 1: 133.90
SUPP 2: 132
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

ZINC (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 112.90
RES 2: 121.70
SUPP 1: 118.60
SUPP 2: 117
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

ALUMINIUM (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 116
RES 2: 117.80   
SUPP 1: 113.70
SUPP 2:  112.50
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

NICKEL (29 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 908         
RES 2: 915
SUPP 1: 891.70
SUPP 2: 881
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

NATURAL GAS (25 NOV) TREND: CONSOLIDATE
RES 1: 228.20
RES 2: 234.60
SUPP 1: 220.80
SUPP 2: 215.70
STRATEGY: SELL ON HIGHS

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COMMODITY MARKET DAILY REVIEW 29-OCT-2013

GOLD , SILVER , COPPER , BASE METAL AND MANY MORE DAILY REVIEW29-OCT-2013

Gold

Gold prices closed on a flat note on Monday despite expectations of a continuing QE program as fall in SPDR Gold Holdings acted as a negative factor. Holdings in the world's largest gold ETF have slipped to 872.02 tonnes. Yesterday, a stronger DX also restricted upside in gold prices. In the Indian markets, prices rose 0.1 percent due to Rupee depreciation and closed at Rs.30758/10 gms after touching a high of Rs.31164/10 gms on Monday.

Gold imports in value terms in India dropped by 65 percent to $3.9 billion worth of gold in the Sep'13 quarter as compared to $11.1 billion for the same period last year. The decline in imports is mainly on the back of restrictions by the RBI on gold imports. On 22nd July'13, RBI introduced an 80:20 formula for imports of gold under which, 20 percent of every consignment of gold should be imported for re-export purposes. On a quarterly basis, import value for the yellow metal slipped by 76 percent from $16.5 billion in April quarter to $3.9 billion for the Q2 FY2013-14.

Silver
Spot silver prices slipped around 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of strength in the DX along with weak market sentiments in later part of the trade. However, sharp downside in prices was restricted as a result of rise in gold prices along with upside in base metals complex. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $22.32/oz and closed at $22.50/oz in yesterday's trade.

On the MCX, near month contract prices slipped around 0.3 percent and closed at Rs.49561/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs.49432/kg on Monday.

Outlook
In today's trade, we expect gold prices to trade higher on account of expectations of delay in QE tapering program by the Federal Reserve. Further, a weaker DX will act as a positive factor. However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of decline in SPDR gold holdings. Rupee depreciation will support upside movement in precious metal prices on the MCX today.

Base Metals
Base metals on the LME traded higher yesterday mainly due to positive industrial production data from the US. Also, unfavorable pending home sales data lead to a expectations of delay in QE tapering by Federal Reserve acted as a positive factor.

However, strength in the DX along with mixed inventories scenario restricted gains in prices.

In the Indian markets, base metals traded on a positive note due to Rupee depreciation.

Copper
LME Copper traded on a flat note yesterday mainly on positive industrial production data along with unfavorable pending home sales which signaled delay in QE taper. Further, decline in LME inventories by 0.6 percent to 478,200 tonnes supported gains.

However, strength in the DX along with weak global market sentiments capped sharp gains. Also, rise in interest rates in China, the biggest consumer, continue to exert downside pressure on prices of the red metal. The metal touched an intra-day low of $7155/tonne and closed at $7178/tonne on Monday.

The near month MCX Copper contrac t traded on a flat note and Rupee depreciation prevented sharp fall in prices.
 

 Outlook
In today's session, we expect base metals group to trades higher on the back of expectations of delay in QE tapering by the Federal Reserve along with weakness in the DX. Further, favorable US industrial production data in yesterday's trade will support an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in prices will be capped as a result of forecast for decline in US consumer confidence data in the evening session. Additionally, decline in US pending home sales data in previous trade will restrict positive movement in prices. In the Indian market, Rupee depreciation will support upside in prices.
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Indian stock market daily morning report

Indian stock market daily morning report

Markets ended lower on Monday as investors turned cautious and booked profits ahead of the RBI monetary policy review on Tuesday. FMCG majors coupled with bank shares contributed the most to the decline.

The 30-share Sensex ended down 113 points at 20,570 and the 50-share Nifty closed 44 points lower at 6,101.

- Shares of two gold finance companies hit their upper circuit limits of 5% each on BSE on market buzz that the central bank may allow them to lend 75% of the value of jewellery compared with 60% at present.

Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance were both locked at their respective 5% upper circuit of Rs 104.70 and Rs 15.73.

- Bharat Gears was locked at 20% upper circuit at Rs 42 on BSE after net profit jumped 672.9% to Rs 3.71 crore on 8.5% growth in net sales to Rs 108.69 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

- Ajanta Pharma closed 14.74% up at Rs 839.75 on BSE after net profit surged 155% to Rs 56 crore on 50% growth in revenue from operations to Rs 280 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

- Colgate-Palmolive (India) closed 3.96% down at Rs 1,228.10 on BSE after net profit declined 24.51% to Rs 109.52 crore on 16% growth in net sales to Rs 895.70 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

- Among the 13 BSE Sectoral Indices, 3 sectors ended the day in positive while 10 sectors ended in negative. Top Gainers: BSE Consumer Durables up by 1.29% and bSe Capital Goods by 0.98%. Top Losers: BSE FMCG down by 2.56% and BSE Realty by 2.10%.

Market breadth was negative at ~0.702 as investors sold large cap stocks. On provisional basis, FII's bought Rs 6.37bn worth of Indian equities and DII's sold Rs 9.03 worth of equities.

Economic and Corporate Developments

- The government and the RBI are considering easing the 80:20 rule that requires importers to supply at least 20% of their imports to exporters.

Officials said the rule is inhibiting imports and traders have made a presentation to the government to relax the condition as it is troublesome for them to show proof of export for every lot of imports.

Buzzing Stocks

- Excel Crop Care was locked at 5% upper circuit at Rs 289.40 on BSE after the company said its board will consider a scheme of arrangement between the company and Gujarat-based TML Industries.

- Dabur India closed 3.75% down at Rs 175.65 on BSE after consolidated net profit rose 23.4% to Rs 249.74 crore on 14.9% growth in net sales to Rs 1,749 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

- HOV Services hit an upper circuit limit of 20% at Rs 38.90 on BSE on a media report that the company has put its BPO company, SourceHOV for sale and is expecting a valuation of $1.2 billion.

- Neyveli Lignite Corporation closed 1.47% down at Rs 57.05 on BSE after net profit declined 28.3% to Rs 240 crore on 2.5% growth in net sales to Rs 1,382.82 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

- Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts lost 1.16% to Rs 55.20 on BSE after the company reported net loss of Rs 1.90 crore in Q2 September 2013 as against net profit of Rs 1.6- crore in Q2 September 2012.

- Essel Propack closed 5.40% up at Rs 43.95 on BSE after consolidated net profit rose 23.45% to Rs 28.69 crore on 10.38% increase in net total income from operations to Rs 526.07 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

- Bharti Infratel closed 1.50% dwon at Rs 154.15 on BSE after consolidated net profit fell 22.43% to Rs 277.40 crore on 2.35% increase in revenue to Rs 2,683.70 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q1 June 2013.

- Commercial Engineers & Body Builders Company lost 4.6% at Rs 11 on BSE after the company reported net loss of Rs 15.0- crore in Q2 September 2013 as against net profit of Rs 16.29 crore in Q2 September 2012.

- Everest Industries closed 13.71% down at Rs 129.95 on BSE after the company reported net loss of Rs 6.65 crore in Q2 September 2013 as against net profit of Rs 12.51 crore in Q2 September 2012.

- Kolte-Patil Developers rose 3.82%, in the morning trade, to Rs 80.20 on BSE after consolidated net profit jumped 64.4% to Rs 32.23 crore on 1.3% fall in net sales to Rs 187.43 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

- KEC International closed 10.86% up at Rs 34.20 on BSE after consolidated net profit surged 34% to Rs 22 crore on 6.6% growth in net sales to Rs 1,77- crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

- Just Dial closed 3.13% up at Rs 1,057.95 on BSE after net profit rose 97.93% to Rs 28.66 crore on 28.56% rise in net sales to Rs 112.66 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

- JSW Energy closed 2.71% down at Rs 44.95 on BSE after net profit fell 35.82% to Rs 163 crore on 2.5% decline in total income from operations to Rs 2,025 crore in Q2 September 2013 over Q2 September 2012.

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RBI expected to raise interest rates, roll back rupee support

The RBI is expected to raise policy interest rates for the second time in as many months on Tuesday to fight stubbornly high inflation, while rolling back further emergency measures put in place recently to support the slumping rupee.

Despite the risks to an already sluggish economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is forecast to lift its policy repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 7.75 percent, according to 29 of 41 economists polled by Reuters.
New RBI chief Raghuram Rajan, a high-profile former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, took office in early September and stunned markets in his first policy review just weeks later by raising interest rates to combat fierce price pressures dogging Asia's third-largest economy.

"Given that food price inflation is at a 38-month high, there is a risk that it could spread to generalised inflation expectations," said Samiran Chakraborty, head of research at Standard Chartered in Mumbai.

Annual food inflation accelerated to 18.4 percent in September, its highest since mid-2010, pushed up by prices of vegetables including onions and stirring public discontent ahead of national elections which must be held by next May.
"At this moment, it is likely that overall there would be a bias towards fighting inflation," he said, adding that the RBI may raise the policy repo rate by 25 bps on Tuesday and by the same amount in December.

In its quarterly macroeconomic review on Monday, the central bank said it expects inflation to remain near current elevated levels for the remainder of the fiscal year that ends in March.
"Both WPI (wholesale price index) and CPI (consumer price index) inflation may stay range-bound around the current levels that remain above comfort levels," it said in its report.
FURTHER UNWINDING OF RUPEE MEASURES SEEN
While the central bank looks set to raise its repo rate, it is likely to cushion the blow to credit markets by further unwinding liquidity tightening measures implemented this summer as it struggled to shore up the tumbling rupee.

The rupee slumped to record lows in August, at one point sliding some 20 percent for the year, on concerns about the country's gaping current account and fiscal deficits, and as global investors dumped emerging market assets for fear the U.S. Federal Reserve was set to start tapering its massive stimulus programme.

The currency has since clawed back some ground, giving the RBI room to lower its Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate a further 25 bps to 8.75 percent, the Reuters poll showed. Lowering the MSF, an overnight borrowing rate for banks, eases the cost of funds for lenders, fuelling credit growth.

The RBI had jacked up the MSF by 200 bps in July as the rupee sagged. It rolled back 75 bps of that at its September 20 review and another 50 bps earlier this month. The combination of a repo increase and further MSF cuts would restore the gap between the two rates to its usual 100 bps.

The rupee closed on Monday at 61.52 to the dollar, down 10.6 percent on the year, after stabilising in recent months on the back of India's support measures as well as the delay in the Fed's expected winding-down of its stimulus.
"The strategy will be to continue on the path of dismantling the extraordinary measures taken during the rupee crisis. I don't think he (Rajan) will be ultra-hawkish and will emphasise that growth is a concern and that also needs to be tackled," said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

India's economy grew at 4.4 percent in the June quarter, the slowest since early 2009. The 5 percent growth rate recorded in the last fiscal year through March was the weakest in a decade.

On Monday, the RBI said it expects a "modest" growth improvement in the second half of the fiscal year.

Still, the headline wholesale price index (WPI) unexpectedly hit a seven-month high in September of 6.46 percent as food prices surged, while the consumer price index jumped an annual 9.84 percent, spurring expectations for another rate hike.

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